The Journal

Afghanistan is known as the "graveyard of empires." It was in Afghanistan that Alexander the Great was almost killed, that Genghis Khan was forced to make a deal for safe passage, and that the British and Soviet militaries were defeated.

Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, U.S. and NATO forces are starting to discover that, just like their predecessors, they are digging their own graves.

Afghanistan does not have to end in failure. It is still possible to create a somewhat functional and stable country without sending more troops in. But it will require changing the current strategy, which was heavily invested in strengthening the Afghan national government and training the military. The disputed Afghan election, which has failed to produce a winner after a month of vote-counting, guarantees that the next national government will be even weaker than the current Karzai administration.

The Obama administration could do a few things, all counter-intuitive and controversial, to improve their chances of winning in Afghanistan: Forget democracy, hire the warlords, and stop the bombing.

Forget democracy

First, it is important the Obama administration forget the idea of democracy and a strong national government in Afghanistan. This is one of the poorest countries in the world, with illiteracy rates around 70 percent. The biggest export is opium, and the biggest imports are guns and ammunition. Afghanistan's national military can't even control the highway between Kabul and Kandahar.

A more realistic goal is to have a stable country, not a Western democracy. Tribal leaders and warlords have ruled Afghanistan for most of its history, and it's not going to change in the next couple of years.

A Sept. 10 editorial in The New York Times, written by an advisor to the last king of Afghanistan, called for the convening of a loya jirga, a grand assembly of tribal leaders and warlords. An honored tradition in Afghanistan, such an assembly would be capable of picking a national leader with more support from the Afghan population than a western-style election. Hamid Karzai was selected as the president of Afghanistan in a similar grand assembly.

Hire the warlords

If the Obama administration wants to take a lesson from the surge in Iraq, it should be that it is easier to put your enemies on the payroll than it is to defeat them. Instead of trying to slowly build up a capable Afghan army to fight the Taliban, the tribes and warlords should be paid and equipped to act as force multipliers.

These people are not rag-tag bandits and thugs. They are experienced and seasoned guerilla fighters with an unsurpassed knowledge of the terrain and capable of planning raids and ambushes.

This is not an ideal solution. The warlords are only interested in increasing their own power. Yet, it is a better solution than sending in more U.S. troops. The warlords are not ideological or religious extremists. They retain their power by siding with the winner and, if the Taliban continues to gain more ground, they will soon join the fight against U.S. troops. It is better to get them on our side now, while their loyalty can still be bought.

Stop the bombing

The notion that Afghans view Americans as occupying forces is not accurate. All four of the major candidates in Afghanistan's presidential election supported the presence of U.S. and NATO troops. What is accurate, however, is that continued loss of civilian life in bombing missions is going to lead to a loss of support for the presence of foreign forces.

During the '80s, Soviet helicopters attacked villages and camps where they believed the mujahedeen were hiding. These attacks did little to defeat the fighters, and instead only acted as a rallying call for all Afghans to join in the battle. The U.S. should not make the same mistake.

Predator drones were invented and refined in Afghanistan. In a search for a weapon that could monitor the movements of Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, the CIA started modifying the first generation of drones to be able to launch missiles in the late '90s. Now, Predator drones are one of the most essential tools in the fight against terrorism.

But the current struggle in Afghanistan is to win the support of the people, and be seen as their protectors from the Taliban. Every civilian killed by a U.S. missile is another reason for the population to not trust the foreign forces.

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